Forecasts

FERTILIZER PRICE FORECAST

To see weekly fertilizer costs click on below
www.fertilizer-index.com/Price-Index.asp (weekly update on fertiliser prices)

Monlthy FertilizerShort Term Fertilizer trends (global)
(Summary from Fertilzer Week www.cruonline.crugroup.com)

Phosphoric Acid, DAP, MAP and TSP

In calendar year 2009, total phosphate demand (fertilizer and non-fertilizer) is forecast to have fallen for a second consecutive year to 40.7 million tonnes P2O5; 5.6% lower than the 2008 level. bWith the exception of South Asia (India) and East Asia (China), phosphate consumption is forecast to be down across all regions and most countries in 2009.

For 2010, world phosphate consumption is expected to be up nearly 6% to 43.1 million tonnes P2O5 as low pipeline inventories and a need to replenish nutrients in the ground support a market rebound. One concern for 2010 is that phosphate prices are up more than $100 per tonne from last year while crop prices are lower. The argument that farmers will need to increase application rates to replenish the nutrients in the soil is valid; but not necessarily this year.

Ammonia

The price forecast has been revised upwards across the benchmark locations short-term for 2010 and 2011, reflecting BSC’s latest assessment of the global supply/demand balance for ammonia, urea and phosphates. The long-term forecast remained unchanged. Factors also contributing to the revision are the recent signs of the market upturn due to rejuvenated fertilizer demand worldwide and the expectation of solid demand recovery from the fertilizer and non-fertilizer sectors to be sustained until the end of the year. The prices for most fertilizers, sulphur, caprolactam, and acrylonitrile have been firm in Q1 2010 rendering support to ammonia markets.

UREA

FSU prices were soft in December with Black Sea fob prices retreating by $10/t to $255-260/t while Baltic prices were lower at $255-260/t. NOLA prices were stable in the range $342-358/t.

Egyptian urea prices were supported in December by high nitrates prices in Europe and sales to the US.

In January, fears of urea availability due to adverse weather increased FSU prices by about $40/t, and climbed close to $300/t.