Forecasts

WHEAT PRICE AND SUPPLY FORECAST

Overview

Total winter crop production in 2009-10 is estimated at 35.2 million tonnes. This is a downward revision from ABARE's December estimate, largely reflecting a fall in crop yields and production estimates for both South Australia and Victoria. This is as a result of the heatwave conditions experienced in late 2009 which was immediately followed by heavy rainfall. The total area sown to winter crops in 2009-10 is estimated to have been similar to the area planted in the previous season at slightly more than 22 million hectares.

Of the major winter grains, wheat production is estimated at 21.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, a slight downward revision from ABARE's December estimate. Barley production is estimated at 8 million tonnes in 2009-10, slightly down from the 8.3 million tonnes estimated in December. Canola production is estimated at around 1.9 million tonnes, higher than the 1.8 million tonnes estimated in December.